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RANSAC Nuclear News, August 14, 2003 Compiled By: Billy Magnuson A. Submarine Dismantlement
 A. Submarine Dismantlement 1. Members of US-Norwegian Delegation Barred from Dismantlement Shipyard In what some say represents a grim schism in the newly-formed atmosphere of cooperation on nuclear submarine dismantlement between Russia and the West, authorities in Russia�s Far Northern region of Murmansk last weekend blocked a visit by a joint US Congress and Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs delegation to the Nerpa shipyard, where both countries are financing nuclear submarine destruction efforts. Of the 11-person delegation�which included Norwegian Ambassador Torbj�rn Norendal, US Congresswoman Betty McCollum and Congressman Ed Schrock�two American congressional staff members accompanying McCollum and Schrock and four Norwegians sent by the Oslo foreign ministry were, at the last minute, told they were denied access to the shipyard by the administration of the Murmansk region, where the shipyard is located. The administration officials based the rejections on a Russian Ministry of Defence letter addressed to Nerpa and forwarded to them, which blocked these six members of the delegation. Just last month, Norway inked a �10m deal with Moscow to destroy two of the Russian Northern Fleet�s outdated and rusting non-strategic Victor III class submarines�one at Nerpa, the other at the Zvyozdochka shipyard in Severodvinsk in the Arkangelsk region. The United States, meanwhile, has poured millions of dollars over the past 11 years into supplying Nerpa with submarine dismantling equipment through the Pentagon-run Cooperative Threat Reduction, or CTR, programme. To be sure, international nuclear disarmament experts have dealt with refusals of access to sites they are working on by Russian authorities ever since Moscow began to allow threat reduction efforts in the early 1990s. But the timing of the refusal to members of last weekend�s group came as a special slap in the face to the delegation, said US and Norwegian officials familiar with the situation. �This visit was no inspection, but a study trip�in that sense, the whole affair was a missed opportunity for the American side to learn� about aspects of non-strategic submarine dismantlement, said a US official who knew the details of the visit. He added that the United States hoped these denials were �simply a mistake or glitch� that will be resolved with openness from the Russian side. �Incidents like this clearly cannot continue to take place.� Norwegian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Karsten Klepsvik agreed, saying: �This might have a very negative impact on all of our plans for future dismantlement efforts.� He added that the foreign ministry had filed a formal complaint with the Russian Embassy in Oslo. �We [are] await[ing] further explanation though we are not expecting that we will receive any further clarification,� he said. Official Explanation According to Murmansk officials, the denials were handed down from the Russian Ministry of Defence�but both American and Norwegian members of the delegation quickly blamed Russia�s Federal Security Service, or FSB, the KGB�s successor organisation, for derailing the trip. Regardless of where the denials came from, the Nerpa Shipyard does not fall under the purview of the Defence Ministry, but rather that of the Russian Government�s Shipbuilding Agency. Under this arrangement, which was codified by two 1999 governmental decrees�Nos. 665 and 878��the [Shipbuilding] Agency cooperates with the Ministry of Defence in the formulation of defence procurement orders, and cooperates with the Ministry of the Economy in choosing, via a competitive process, the shipbuilding enterprises and organisations to carry out conversion programmes.� Furthermore, according to the 1999 presidential Decree No. 651, which formalised the creation of the agency, it is in charge of naval shipyards, having absorbed some of the functions formerly performed by the Ministry of the Economy. As a naval shipyard, Nerpa, therefore, is answerable only to the Shipbuilding Agency, and the agency itself has only a cooperative�not a subordinate�relationship with the Defence Ministry. And that relationship, according to the legislation, is limited to Russian maritime defence contracts, which do not concern the Norwegian dismantlement efforts or CTR activities. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that the Defence Ministry�although the refusals may, through usual Russian bureaucratic snafus, have arrived on its stationary�would have had anything to do with the denials. A spokesman for the Defence Ministry in Moscow denied ever having heard of the planned trip and confirmed that his Ministry had no say�as per Decrees 665 and 878�over the Nerpa shipyard beyond �cooperation on ship building.� �We are not involved in any of Nerpa�s dismantlement efforts,� said the spokesman, who asked that his name be withheld. �Sometimes these projects are not popular with the Defence Ministry, but it is Minatom [Russia�s Ministry of Atomic Energy] and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs that answer for these projects.� Both Minatom and the Ministry of Foreign affairs said they would not comment on the denials. The US official in a position to know details of the trip said in a telephone interview that �there is a lack of clarity as to who was responsible for the denials.� �[The documents for] the special visas required for the visit were all filed, as required by the Russians, 45 days before the proposed visit,� the official continued. �There should have been no problems, and there was nothing exceptional [in the work histories or expertise] of those Americans that were denied.� The 11-person delegation had been invited by the Murmansk administration and was travelling as part of a Norwegian-American parliamentary exchange programme. They were informed of the denials�which had been issued while the delegation was still en route to Murmansk�just as they arrived in town. Vladimir Motlokhov, vice-governor of the Murmansk region, tried to mollify the delegation by offering to let the five members with clearance visit the Nerpa facility, but the group refused and left Murmansk immediately. �Either we all go or no one goes,� Norway's Norendal was quoted by local Murmansk newspapers as saying. �I have no idea why [these six particular individuals] were refused,� Motlokhov said in a telephone interview with Bellona Web. �Their documents were presented on time so there should have been no problem.� He added that �somebody gets refused on practically every trip� of international delegations wishing to inspect nuclear installation in the Murmansk region. �It happens here and in every country, even in Norway and the United States�it�s something between the ministries.� Motlokhov, however, insisted that it was�as far as he knew�the Defence Ministry that had issued the denials, and insisted further that the Nerpa shipyard is a Defence Ministry-controlled installation, despite legislation and comment from the Defence Ministry itself indicating the contrary. He denied that the refusal of six members of the delegation was a result of pressure by the FSB. Russia Tries to Calm Western Fears The purpose of the trip, according to spokesmen for Representatives McCollum, of Minnesota, and Ed Schrock, of Virginia, was to study ways in which the United States could expand its threat reduction aid to Russia. Congressional supporters of the Pentagon-run Cooperative Threat Reduction, or CTR, programme have long wanted to include non-strategic submarines in the programme�s dismantlement mandate�something they have been pushing for ever since the 2002 Group of Eight industrialised nations, or G-8, summit in Kananaskis, Canada. At that summit, the G-8 pledged to give Russia $20 billion over the next 10 years for nuclear disarmament and cleanup projects. Alexander Vinoviyev, spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Oslo, which had helped arrange the Norwegian delegation�s trip, was anxious to smooth things over with the Norwegians and the Americans and called the incident �just an episode.� �This should not be interpreted as disinterest in [submarine dismantlement projects] because we are, in fact, very interested,� he said in a telephone interview with Bellona Web. �Russia�s economic problems are well-known, as are its ecological problems, and we are grateful for the help we are receiving.� Yevgeny Khorishko, a spokesman for the Russian Embassy in Washington, which arranged the complicated visa procedures for the American delegation, said in a telephone interview that the incident was the result of �a misunderstanding between Moscow and Murmansk authorities.� Who Quashed the Trip? But Representatives McCollum and Schrock were not appeased by Russia�s diplomatic assertions. In a joint statement issued prior to their departure from Russia last weekend, they said �we were surprised and outraged by this inexplicable and totally unjustified decision, apparently made in Moscow by the Federal Security [Service]. This action is in violation of international agreements between the government of Russia and the US and Norwegian governments which stipulate that assistance to Russia for such programmes must be transparent and unfettered access should be permitted.� FSB officials reached in Moscow offered little comment on the incident, and said they had not ordered the denials. But one spokesman, who would not give his name, said, �there are legitimate security reasons for such denials, but because they are classified, I will not discuss them.� Klepsvik said it was �unacceptable that the FSB be involved in any of our projects�but we see them all over� during visits to Russia. McCollum, who serves on the House of Representatives� International Relations Committee, and Schrock, who sits on the House Armed Services Committee, likewise, were not convinced by the FSB spokesman�s hints at protecting national security. �There can be no legitimate security basis for restricting a congressional visit to a site where obsolete, decommissioned nuclear submarines are being dismantled�particularly when this programme is being funded by our government and the Norwegian government,� the joint statement continued. �It is particularly counterproductive for the Russian government to take such an action when the United States and Norway are working with Russia to fund additional dismantling of obsolete submarines. This arbitrary action by the FSB can only increase opposition in the US Congress for funding such programmes,� McCollum and Schrock concluded. Oslo Russian Embassy spokesman Vinoviyev noted that the incident did not signal the beginning of �another cold war.� But he took umbrage with the Americans and Norwegians� assertions about FSB interference. �Russia�s security structures are free to decide whether to admit someone or not�it is their decision,� he said. The �Refuseniks� According to the US official who knew details of the trip, one of the Americans who were refused admission to Nerpa ironically hadn�t even been able to make the trip and was not present in Murmansk. Both Norwegian and US officials refused to release the names of those who had been denied access, or �refuseniks� as they had been dubbed by Murmansk media. But according to one knowledgeable source in Murmansk, who requested anonymity, the two Americans who were denied entry to the Nerpa were both professional staff members of two US congressional committees. One, according to the source, was Thomas Gordy, who works in Congress as a public relations official and an assistant for defence legislators. The other, the source said, was Jennifer Walsh, a congressional Scandinavian specialist. The Murmansk source was unable to supply a detailed list of those who were refused on the Norwegian side, but he said all of the rejected people work in defence-related positions at the Norwegian Foreign Ministry. According to the rejection letter sent by the administration of the Nerpa shipyard�a copy of which was obtained by Bellona Web�two of the foreign ministry rejectees are defence consultants and the other two are aviation specialists. US and Norwegian officials refused to confirm this information, and Norwegian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Klepsvik denied that any of Norway�s visitors had any special knowledge that would have led to them getting scratched off the list. �They were picked more or less at random,� Klepsvik said. On the US side, neither Walsh nor Gordy could be reached for comment. Murmansk�s Explanation According to Murmansk press reports, Motlokhov told the delegation that the denials were issued because �within the framework of Russian law, granting access to sites run by the Ministry of Defence is beyond the competence of the regional government.� What Motlokhov failed to mention to the delegation is that the Nerpa shipyard is not run by the Defence Ministry. Nonetheless, in a meeting with the visitors, he said that �I share your concern about what has happened and regret what has happened,� according to Murmansk papers. �We have done all we can to assure that your visit went according to plan. We punctually sent all necessary documents to all the concerned ministries.� Alexander Ruzankin, first deputy head for the Murmansk region�s department of economics, likewise, maintained that the Defence Ministry was responsible for the denials. But he went one step further and vaguely criticised the delegation�s visa arrangements. Indeed, an aide to McCollum said it appeared that authorities in Murmansk did not receive an up-to-date list of the delegation�s members, the Associated Press reported. �If the Americans had concluded a direct agreement with Nerpa, then it would have been an agreed upon list of those who could visit the facility,� Ruzankin told Murmansk newspapers. �Otherwise, denials are possible�it happens almost every time such delegations come to us.� Ruzankin went on to say that in most instances �as a rule� the regional administration is able to secure all necessary permission within required time limits. �But this time, the Defence Ministry outdid itself�the list of �refuseniks� arrived late in the evening as the foreign delegation was already on its way to Murmansk,� he was quoted as saying. The Shadow of the FSB The Murmansk administration�s repeated invocation of the Defence Ministry as the agency that bungled the visit to Nerpa for the two Americans and four Norwegians led many experts to conclude that the FSB decided to derail the expedition in disguise. The recent outpouring of foreign money and aid to Russia to help dismantle its submarines following June�s G-8 summit in Evian, France, has raised the cockles of Russia�s counterintelligence within the FSB, said Moscow-based analyst Pavel Felgenhauer in a telephone interview. In his opinion, booting part of the delegation was a way of showing the panoply of foreign donors who is really running the show. �The FSB is increasingly prominent and those who are trying to disarm Russia are not popular with them,� Felgenhauer said. He added that the apparent FSB blockade �doesn�t represent any major policy change in submarine dismantlement, but the denials increased the status of the FSB and let [donor nations] know who is in charge�it gave the FSB a chance to flex its muscles.� Refusals Will Mean More US Congressional Trouble for CTR Currently, the Pentagon-run CTR programme is limited to destroying only ballistic submarines that once posed a threat to the United States�something Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman, and cofounder of the CTR programme, Senator Richard Lugar is trying to change. Other countries, like Norway, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Canada, have pointed out the environmental and security dangers of the Russian Navy�s retired non-strategic, or multipurpose, submarines, the majority of which are older than their ballistic counterparts and are stored rusting at sea, some barely able to float, with their nuclear fuel still on board. Senator Lugar, who with former Senator Sam Nunn founded the �Nunn-Lugar� or CTR programme in 1992, has in recent months campaigned heavily that CTR be allowed to expand beyond congressional restrictions to include non-strategic submarines, and the joint delegation�s visit, had it not been blocked, would conceivably have lent credibility to widening CTR�s horizons in this direction. Instead, it seems to have lent ammunition to CTR�s congressional opponents, whose arguments toward cutting CTR�s minimal $450m annual funding�which is less than one tenth of one percent of the US yearly defence budget�centre on Russia�s perceived lack of cooperation about access to Russian sites CTR is assisting. Lugar�s office had no comment on the denials issued by the Russian government, citing non-involvement with the House of Representatives� affairs. Jon Wolfsthal, deputy director and a non-proliferation expert for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said denials of access are not an uncommon occurrence. �But it�s not helpful when explaining the need for these projects to funders,� he said in a telephone interview from Washington. Return to Menu B. Nuclear Testing 1. Russia�s Nuclear Potential is Safe and Secure, Says Radii Ilkayev Russia�s nuclear potential is safe and secure, said, reportedly by ITAR-TASS, Radii Ilkayev, the Director of Federal Nuclear Center All-Russia Research Institute of Experimental Physics (VIIEF, Sarov) addressing August 13 the jubilee scientific and technical council of Minatom of Russia celebrating the 50-year anniversary of the Russia�s first hydrogen bomb test. �We are capable of maintaining the country�s nuclear potential without nuclear tests�, Ilkayev stressed adding that it is done through computer-aided, physical and mathematical modeling. He also reminded that the USSR had carried out the last nuclear explosion in the 1980s. �About one forth of the Center�s employees are young people who have never taken part in nuclear tests�, he stressed. Return to Menu C. U.S.-Russia 1. Arms Sting Ameliorates US-Russia Relations The sting that caught a British citizen allegedly trying to sell a portable Russian-made antiaircraft missile in New Jersey provided a welcome boost for the US-Russian relationship as well as a much-needed victory for both countries' security services in the war on terror. But Russian analysts said yesterday that the arrest of Hemant Lakhani, who apparently thought he was smuggling into the United States an SA-18 Igla missile that would be used to down commercial aircraft, will do little to stem the burgeoning black market trade in the deadly weapons in the former Soviet Union. Russia's counterintelligence agency hailed the sting as the result of improved cooperation with the intelligence services of its former Cold War adversaries, Britain and the United States. "It is the first time such an operation has been carried out since the end of the Cold War, when our special services acted in confrontation with each other," said Sergei Ignatchenko, chief spokesman of the Federal Security Service -- the main successor of the former Soviet KGB. Ignatchenko told Russian Television in Washington that improved intelligence ties among former adversaries have yielded "positive results" in the effort to prevent illegal arms sales. But Yevgeny Volk, head of the Moscow office of the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington-based think tank, said the sting would have no effect on the illegal trade in shoulder-fired Russian-made missiles. "This market is very large, and it is not just connected to international terrorism," Volk said in a telephone interview. "To control it within the former Soviet Union is harder than conducting a sting operation." The portable Igla is the antiaircraft weapon of choice not only for international terrorists, but insurgent groups in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Chechnya's separatists in particular frequently boast that they purchase such weapons from Russian military units; the rebels may have used an Igla to down a Russian military helicopter last August, killing 118 troops. Ivan Safranchuk, director of the Moscow office of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information, said that Georgia, the strife-torn Caucasus nation, has turned into a major center for illegal sales of the missiles. Georgia inherited large stocks of shoulder-fired missiles when the Soviet Union broke up in 1991. The Igla system is light enough for a single man to carry and fire, but deadly enough to down helicopters as well as larger, faster aircraft during takeoff and landing, Safranchuk said. "If a terrorist sits not far from an airport, it will be easy to shoot down a plane," he said. Russian President Vladmir Putin, who backed the United States following the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, has long insisted that Russia and the West cooperate on arms proliferation. In June, Russia's defense minister called on former Soviet republics to implement stricter controls on exports of shoulder-fired missiles. The operation was revealed ahead of a summit expected this fall between Putin and President Bush. Putin, whose army is bogged down in Chechnya, has struggled to claim victories in his declared war on terrorism. However, Putin did receive a boost from the United States on Friday when Washington declared a senior rebel commander, Shamil Basayev, a terrorist and a threat to US national security. Volk termed Lakhani's arrest "a symbolic event" that provided good news for a US-Russian relationship that has suffered since Moscow's public fallout with Washington and London over the war in Iraq. Russian intelligence agencies helped provide information on Afghanistan before and during the war against the Taliban, but US and Russian spies continue to compete as adversaries in other areas. The United States has also expressed concern about Russian cooperation with Iran's nuclear program, and Washington accused Russian companies of providing weapons to Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq. "Both the US and Russian leadership have to show that cooperation is ongoing," Volk said. "They have to show that there is progress." According to Russian counterintelligence officials and a criminal complaint filed against Lakhani yesterday, US and Russian authorities were able to work together on the complicated sting over a 5-month period that spanned the worst tensions over Iraq. The Russian news network NTV reported that Putin gave personal approval for the most sensitive part of the operation, the arrival in Russia of an FBI agent posing as the weapon's buyer. Lakhani paid $85,000 to a Russian agent posing as a corrupt midlevel representative of a Russian defense factory near St. Petersburg. Russian agents eventually provided an inert missile that was shipped to the United States disguised as medical equipment. Lakhani was arrested when he tried to retrieve it at a Newark hotel. Return to Menu 2. Colin Powell Highly Assesses Joint Work of Russian, US Secret Services US State Secretary Colin Powell highly assessed international operations by special services which led to the prevention of the illegal sale in the US of an Igla portable air defence-missile complex. This is very important. The arrests made yesterday are significant since the United States and the Russian Federation worked together to cut short the illegal weapons trade, Powell said on Wednesday in an interview with the TV channel Univision Television Network. Small arms and surface-to-air missiles possessed by terrorists threaten the world, the US State Secretary said. This is precisely why all countries should work together in combating terrorism and I am glad that we succeeded in detaining the criminals, Powell stressed. Having pointed out that Russia has also been faced with the problems of terrorism in Chechnya and even in Moscow where people have died in acts of terror, the US State Secretary said that in combating this threat the world's countries are now pooling their efforts even more. Return to Menu 3. Sting Is a Show of Russian, U.S. Ties The decision of Russian and U.S. secret services to disclose their joint sting operation to nab the smuggler of a portable anti-aircraft missile in New Jersey is an unprecedented public relations coup designed to raise awareness of the vulnerability of passenger aircraft to terrorist attack as well as signal a further mending of ties ahead of a September summit. The cooperation between the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Federal Security Service to nab a British national trying to sell a Russian-made Igla missile may or may not be unprecedented in scale, but the release of information about the operation certainly is, an expert inside the Russian intelligence community said in a phone interview Wednesday. "This is unprecedented. I might not remember everything, but I think this is the first case when concrete information has been released," said the expert, who asked not to be named. The expert declined to comment on possible reasons for the decision to reveal details of the months-long operation, in which Russian operatives sold the missile to the arms trader and then traveled with it to the United States to make sure it was safely delivered to the "customer." Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, or CAST, said the wide disclosure of the operation "is clearly a PR stunt to highlight that relations are back on track" after Iraq and ahead of the summit between Presidents George W. Bush and Vladimir Putin in September. According to both Pukhov and Ivan Safranchuk, head of the Moscow office of the Washington-based Center for Defense Information, the decision to publicize the operation also sends a strong signal that both Moscow and Washington remain genuinely concerned about the proliferation of shoulder-fired missiles, which terrorists could use to shoot down passenger jets. The months-long operation also proves that mid-level operatives from the United States and Russia continued to work together even when top officials from their two countries were trading barbs over the U.S.-led campaign in Iraqi, Safranchuk noted. Previously, cooperation between government agencies would come to a halt each time relations between the White House and the Kremlin went go sour, as was the case during NATO's bombing campaign in Yugoslavia in 1999. "This proves that cooperation can and does continue ... on issues of mutual interest while people shout at each other until their voices turn hoarse on other issues," Safranchuk said. While U.S. officials first leaked information to the U.S. press on Tuesday, FSB chief spokesman Vitaly Ignatchenko went on the record Wednesday morning to confirm the operation in Washington. "It is the first time such an operation has been carried out since the end of the Cold War, when our special services were in confrontation with each other," Ignatchenko told Russian journalists. Moreover, after speaking to the journalists in Washington, Ignatchenko left the Russian Embassy and traveled to Newark, New Jersey, in the company of several other Russian officials to hold a press conference jointly with U.S. law enforcement officials. A U.S. government official, who spoke to the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday on condition of anonymity, said the cooperation was unprecedented: "It is a significant case because it is the first time the FBI has had a joint terrorism case with the Russians, and it signifies a degree of cooperation with the FSB we have never seen before." The FSB and FBI, which are responsible in their own countries for catching the other country's spies, have rarely admitted to having cooperated in the past. And they have never released such a detailed account of any joint operation, even though the FBI has official representation in Moscow. By way of comparison, Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, or SVR, which has an official representative in Washington, shared information on Afghanistan ahead of the U.S. operation there, yet it has not gone beyond general statements that it "interacts" with the U.S. secret services in fighting proliferation, terrorism and drug-trafficking. Reached by phone Wednesday, SVR spokesman Boris Labusov declined to comment on the sting operation and would only reiterate the "interaction" of his service with its foreign counterparts. FSB officials in Moscow and the Kremlin press service also would not comment. At the Group of Eight summit in June, the United States and Russia pushed for, and got, a resolution on the need to curb proliferation of surface-to-air missiles. Both countries have also publicly called for better protection of civil aircraft from these missiles, while Russia has tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to convince fellow former Soviet republics to take an inventory of the missiles and notify the others of any exports of these weapons. Safranchuk said Russia should be even more concerned about the vulnerability of passenger aircraft, given the scores of Strela and Igla anti-aircraft missiles that are available on the black market in the former Soviet Union and the successful use of these missiles by Chechen rebels to shoot down warplanes and helicopters in Chechnya. The disintegration of the Soviet Union prompted many of its republics to claim sovereignty over the weapons located on their territory, and Russia managed to withdraw only some of these weapons after establishing its own armed forces in 1992, CAST expert Maksim Pyadushkin said. As a result, the Defense Ministry lost track of 260,000 small arms and light weapons, including Igla and Strela shoulder-fired missiles, in the Transcaucasus alone as the Soviet Union fell apart, he said. Since then, two of the three Transcaucasus republics -- Azerbaijan and Georgia -- have been shattered by coups, in the course of which some military units became illegal formations, thus further complicating attempts to take full stock of their arsenals. Both the U.S. and Russian defense industry are developing portable systems for jamming the guidance systems of heat-seeking missiles, CAST deputy head Konstantin Makiyenko said. Russian defense companies have tested such a system, but it has not entered production, he said. Return to Menu D. Russia-Iran 1. Israel's Red Flag on Iran A grim warning from Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon to President Bush that Iran is much closer to producing nuclear weapons than U.S. intelligence believes has triggered concern here that Israel is seriously considering a preemptive strike against Iran's Bushehr nuclear reactor. Sharon dramatized his forecast by bringing Maj. Gen. Yoav Galant, a three-star army officer who serves as his military secretary, to a meeting with Bush in the Oval Office two weeks ago, U.S. and Israeli sources tell me. Galant showered a worried-looking Bush with photographs and charts from a thick dossier on Iran's covert program. So much for the news. Now the analysis: Oy. And vey. Sharon's description of the unacceptable risks of Iran's being able to launch "a nuclear holocaust" comes just as the Bush administration is making headway in constructing a diplomatic containment strategy for the nuclear weapons programs of Iran and North Korea. Unilateral Israeli action against Iran would destroy this strategy and gravely complicate Bush's reconstruction efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan as well. Bush's frequently warring senior policymakers have reached a consensus (now there's news) in recent weeks that the United States has no attractive military options in Iran or North Korea. Instead, Washington must work with its allies to impede these rogue efforts to create nuclear arsenals. Europe and Russia have responded by increasingly distancing themselves from Iran and by joining the Bush team in pressuring North Korea into multilateral talks. Knee-jerk Bush critics will no doubt poke fun or scorn at these post-Iraq multilateralist efforts. As someone almost said once, let them eat yellowcake. An improving climate in transatlantic relations as the bitterness over Iraq recedes makes this strategy the best bet for the next six months, and probably beyond. U.S. officials believe they can use that time to put new obstacles in the way of the Iranian and North Korean programs. But Sharon's presentation to Bush challenges the assumptions and viability of the emerging U.S. nonproliferation strategy on Iran. U.S. intelligence estimates that put Iran's covert nuclear weapons drive about four years short of being able to turn plutonium into a workable nuclear warhead overstate the time factor by at least 100 percent, Sharon argued. One to two years is his projected timeline. To be sure, Sharon would face formidable logistical and political problems in trying to update Israel's successful preemptive 1981 strike against Iraq's Osirak reactor. His Oval Office briefing may have been designed to pressure Bush to move more forcefully on Iran rather than to advertise an impending Israeli action. Israeli leaders have consistently warned Americans for two decades that Iran's Islamic regime is a mortal enemy for the Jewish state and must not be underestimated. Sharon's account, while apparently more urgent and dramatic than past presentations, fits a pattern of Israel "treating a nuclear-arming Iran as an immediate existential threat," says one U.S. official, while Washington does not. But it is Israel's experience with Osirak that makes Sharon's alarming words impossible to ignore. The trigger for that strike was intelligence that the Iraqi reactor was about to be loaded with nuclear fuel. Hitting it after the loading would have risked spreading radioactive contamination across a wide area in the Middle East. And after the 1991 Gulf War it was discovered that outside assessments -- including Israel's -- underestimated how close Saddam Hussein had been to getting the bomb. Russian delivery of fuel to the Bushehr reactor that it will complete for Iran later this year could be taken by the Israelis as a similar point of no return. The Iranians also have a covert uranium mining and enrichment effort underway that could be tied into the Bushehr reactor, international inspectors have reported. "The enrichment effort is the bigger unknown for us," says a U.S. official. "But our estimate is that Iran does not now have a completely indigenous nuclear capability. Efforts to prevent it from reaching that point of no return are worth pursuing. The longer you can keep Russia from delivering the fuel, the better off you are." A year-long effort led by Undersecretary of State John Bolton to persuade Russia and other countries to be more wary of Iran seems to be making inch-by-inch progress. Moscow has joined in summit-level statements critical of Iran, and Germany and France recently blocked shipment of aluminum tubes useful to Iran's enrichment program. Bolton will seek new action from the International Atomic Energy Agency at a Sept. 8 meeting. Hope that he gets it. Whatever his purpose, Sharon has usefully sketched one awful alternative to the Bush administration's making multilateralism work for it. Return to Menu E. Russia-North Korea 1. George Bush Praises Russia's Contribution to North Korean Talks US President George Bush has announced that Washington will carry on its dialogue with North Korea, and praised other countries', including Russia's, contribution to this process. "It's very good that Russians are having a dialogue with North Koreans," he stressed in a Wednesday conversation with journalists at his ranch in Crawford, Texas. Praising the participation of Japan and South Korea in the North Korean dialogue, Bush said he hoped the nuclear problem of Pyongyang could be solved by peaceful means. "We've made good progress," he said. Return to Menu 2. North Korean Diplomat Satisfied With Results of Moscow Talks North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kung Sok Ung said he is satisfied with the results of the Moscow consultations on preparations for the six-party talks on Pyongyang's nuclear. In an exclusive interview with Itar-Tass on Thursday Kung, head of the North Korean delegation at the Moscow consultations, said, "One of the major topics in the agenda was preparations for the six-party talks to be held in Beijing in late August. We have an opportunity of discussing all issues and I am rather satisfied with the results of the Moscow consultations." In Moscow, Kung met with Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Valery Loshchinin and the deputy foreign ministers, Alexander Losyukov and Yuri Fedotov. "In Moscow the North Korean delegation discussed not only the situation on the Korean peninsula but also prospects for the development of relations with Russia," the North Korean diplomat said. Return to Menu 3. Russia Pessimistic on Korea Talks Before Beijing Russian diplomats emerged pessimistic on Wednesday from talks with South and North Korean officials, saying an "abyss of distrust" between Pyongyang and Washington left little room for nuclear compromise. Senior delegations from the two Koreas visited Moscow for consultations ahead of six-way talks likely to start on August 27 in Beijing to end a standoff over Pyongyang's nuclear programme. "So far there is no ground for any particular optimism," Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said in televised remarks after the talks. "There are big differences, I would even say an abyss of distrust, between parties, especially the United States and North Korea," he said. Losyukov is Moscow's leading expert on Korean matters. He had key talks with the two delegations, which visited the ministry virtually at the same time but were careful to avoid any direct contact, even an accidental drive-by on the street. North Korea has laid out tough terms for the Beijing talks, reviving a demand for a non-aggression treaty and diplomatic ties with the United States. Despite the gloomy outlook, Losyukov said there was still a slim chance that progress could be made in Beijing. "The question is how to overcome this abyss. And speaking about our assessments, I would say that there is still a kind of window of opportunity out there," he said. Losyukov's comments after meetings with North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kung Sok-ung and South Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Jae-sup followed Moscow's proposal of a multilateral pact offering security guarantees to Pyongyang. "We think that it would be fair to swap North Korea's agreement to give up its nuclear programme...for some security guarantees for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea," he said. "How it could be achieved is a negotiation matter." Earlier, a Russian Foreign Ministry official, quoted by Interfax news agency, suggested a compromise whereby others at the talks could join Washington in signing a pact guaranteeing Pyongyang would be safe without a nuclear deterrent. "This document could be four-sided � the United States, North Korea, Russia and China � or six-sided with the inclusion of Japan and South Korea," the unidentified official said. "It could be a joint statement or some other document of the same status." The nuclear crisis erupted in October, when Washington said Pyongyang had a secret nuclear arms programme. North Korea then expelled U.N. nuclear inspectors, pulled out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and restarted a mothballed reactor. Moscow and Beijing backed the North in the 1950-53 Korean War � technically still not ended � and are the only nations in the six-way talks which have diplomatic ties with Pyongyang. Under U.S. pressure, China played a key role in brokering the talks and Russia now seems to be stepping up its efforts. Losyukov will discuss the crisis with Japanese officials in Moscow on Monday, according to Japanese news agency reports. Return to Menu 4. Russia, China Seek to Reassure Pyongyang A senior Russian official said Wednesday that Moscow and Beijing may offer North Korea security guarantees as part of an international effort to ease tension over the North's nuclear programs, Itar-Tass reported. Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov's comments came in the midst of separate consultations held by Russian diplomats with envoys from North and South Korea. Talks were to be held in Washington with U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials. "The two countries might offer additional guarantees, if guarantees established by the United States fail to meet North Korea's expectations to the full," Itar-Tass quoted Losyukov as saying. Russia believes security guarantees for Pyongyang -- which called Wednesday for a nonaggression treaty with the United States -- could defuse the crisis. "North Korea's wish to have security guarantees looks absolutely logical and there is every indication it will be insisting on them," Losyukov told Itar-Tass. "Russia and China have an identical vision of the situation." The United States has said it could agree to written security guarantees but not a treaty that would require Senate approval. North Korea said Wednesday it would not give up its "nuclear deterrent force" unless Washington agreed to a nonaggression treaty and diplomatic ties with Pyongyang. Talks with a North Korean delegation began at one Foreign Ministry building at about the same time that South Korean diplomats arrived at another building for their own consultations. The aim of the talks is to lay groundwork for planned six-nation negotiations that are expected to begin in Beijing in two weeks. "We are counting on finding out about the moods of Pyongyang and Seoul and the ideas they intend to put forward" at the Beijing talks, Itar-Tass quoted Losyukov as saying before the talks began. Losyukov met with North Korean Deputy Foreign Minister Kun Sun Un, while Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Valery Loshchinin met with South Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Jae-sup, Interfax reported. Kim was to meet later with Losyukov, it said. The Foreign Ministry declined to comment on the talks. North and South Korea, the United States, China, Russia and Japan are to take part in the Beijing talks in an effort to ease tension over U.S. allegations that Pyongyang is trying to develop nuclear weapons in violation of a 1994 agreement. The South Korean diplomat, Kim, said the North Korean call for a nonaggression treaty with the United States would not affect plans for the talks, Itar-Tass and Interfax reported. Russia is eager to raise its profile on the Korean Peninsula but has played a secondary role in efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage praised China for helping bring North Korea to the negotiating table. Losyukov said Russia hopes to build "mutual trust" among the nations involved in the negotiations, Itar-Tass reported. "In a way Moscow is in a better position to do this, since we conduct regular contacts with North Korea," he said. Return to Menu 5. US Must Sign Non-Aggression Pact With DPRK Revision of the United States' policies in relation to North Korea is a prerequisite for the resolution of the nuclear dispute between Pyongyang and Washington, the North Korean ambassador in Moscow, Pak Ui Chun said Thursday. "The United States must sign a non-aggression pact with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. As long as the United States sticks to a hostile policy against the DPRK, we shall be unable to eliminate our nuclear deterrence potential. Changes in U.S. policies and steps towards the solution of the nuclear controversy must from beginning to end be taken strictly on the principle of simultaneous action by both parties," the North Korean ambassador said. "To prevent war in the Korean peninsula and ensure the well-being and prosperity of the Korean nation the United States must fundamentally revise its hostile policy towards the DPRK and conclude a non-aggression pact with our country. Even a so-called preliminary inspection will be inconceivable until the United States has abandoned hostile policies," Pak Ui Chun said. Return to Menu 6. No Understandings Discussed at Russian-South Korean Consultations in Moscow No understandings, acting or prospective, came under debate as Korean settlement was discussed at consultations in Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. "It was a mere consultation," a South Korean delegate who strongly insisted on anonymity said to RIA Novosti. Today's Russian-South Korean consultations concerned preparations for negotiations of the two Koreas, Russia, the USA, China and Japan, due in Beijing toward the month's end to debate the North Korean nuclear issue, say host ministerial PR. The agenda included, as analysts assume, North Korea's latest demand for a non-aggression treaty with the USA and the latter giving up unfriendly policies toward Pyongyang. Return to Menu 7. North Korea Drive for Security Guarantees Logical North Korea's wish to have security guarantees is "absolutely logical", Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said. He leads a Russian delegation at consultations with North Korea's representatives in Moscow on Wednesday. Losyukov said in an interview wit ITAR-TASS that a "potential conflict on the Korean Peninsula is a threat to security of Russia". "We are going to remove this threat, and not to pose in the role of a judge of North Korea," the diplomat said. He added that "not only the presence, but the very possibility of appearance of nuclear weapons can pose a danger". "Here one should determine whether there is such a threat at all and then decide how to avert it. This question must be clarified in the course of the being talks," Losyukov said. Russia is actively preparing for the talks, due in the last decade of August in Beijing, in which North and South Korea, China, the United States and Japan will take part in an effort to relieve tensions over the North's nuclear issue. "The wish of the Northern Koreans to have guarantees of their own security is absolutely logical and, from all appearances, they will insist of receiving such guarantees," Losyukov said. "Russia sees the use of sanctions as last resort. Such step has been taken a counted number of times." Losyukov said "before talking about the closure of some programmes or about guarantees, its is necessary to hold a calm discussion, create an atmosphere of more trust". He expressed regret that a "very high degree of mistrust exists between North Korea and the U.S". "The degree of mistrust now is such that it often does not allow rationally assessing the positions of each other," the diplomat said. Return to Menu 8. Russia Says N. Korea to Insist on Security Pledge Russia said on Tuesday North Korea was likely to insist on security guarantees at six-way talks on its nuclear weapons programme and urged Washington and Pyongyang to show greater understanding towards each other. Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov, due to hold separate bilateral talks with delegations from North and South Korea on Wednesday, told Itar-Tass news agency Moscow would not act as a judge towards its old Communist ally. "The wish of the North Koreans to have guarantees for their own security is absolutely logical and they, apparently, will insist on getting such guarantees," Losyukov � Russia's top Asia expert � was quoted as saying. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said on Tuesday six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programme were likely to begin on August 27 in Beijing. The talks are designed to defuse a crisis that erupted in October when the United States said North Korea was pursuing a secret nuclear weapons programme. North Korea had demanded bilateral talks and a non-aggression pact with Washington, but this month agreed to the multilateral talks with South Korea, the United States, China, Japan and Russia. Losyukov is due to meet North Korean Foreign Minister Kung Sok-ung and South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Jae-sup in Moscow on Wednesday to discuss preparations for the six-way talks. "Before talking about closing any kind of programmes or about guarantees, it is essential to hold a calm discussion and to create an atmosphere of greater trust," Losyukov said. "There exists a very large degree of mistrust," he said. "The level of mistrust is such now that it is often makes it impossible to appreciate each others' positions rationally." Losyukov said on Monday Russia and China, who backed the North in the 1950-53 Korean War and remain its closest friends, could offer Pyongyang additional security guarantees to back up any U.S. offer. But that did not mean Russian troops would help the North in the event of a conflict, he said. Moscow opted out of a mutual defence pact with Pyongyang in 1995. He also said that Russia considered imposing sanctions an extreme measure. Return to Menu 9. China Supports Russian Proposal on N. Korea Nuclear Issue China has thrown its weight behind the Russian proposal that the two nations and the United States will guarantee security to North Korea in return for a commitment to scrap its nuclear weapons program, diplomatic sources said Tuesday. The two countries also agreed to present the idea in the upcoming six-nation talks involving North and South Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan slated for later this month in Beijing, the sources said. Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov reached the accords in a meeting Monday in Beijing, the sources said. Russia has been intensifying diplomatic efforts to persuade the parties to accept its proposal since North Korea agreed to holding the six-nation talks on its nuclear program and the U.S. began to show flexibility over a security guarantee around the end of July. Moscow now sees room to push through the idea it had once abandoned because of rejections by both North Korea and the U.S., according to the sources. Losyukov is expected to ask South and North Korea to accept the proposal in meetings with his respective counterparts slated for Wednesday and is arranging for a similar bilateral bid with Japan next week, the sources said. But the U.S. stance over the proposal remains unknown, and it may try to come up with its own joint package with Japan and South Korea in a planned tripartite meeting Wednesday and Thursday in Washington, they said. Russia has proposed that the parties concerned will declare a security guarantee and economic assistance to North Korea and that North Korea scraps its nuclear weapons development all at once. It has also offered to provide natural gas through pipelines as an option of the envisaged economic aid to North Korea. Return to Menu F. Nuclear Safety 1. Moscow City Court to Consider Plea from Norway's Bellona Ecology Association On Tuesday the Moscow City Court has found lawful a decision of the Presnya Intermunicipal Court. It refused to consider ecologists' plea against the Russian Defence Ministry for its refusal to submit information on accidents at Russian nuclear submarines. In this way, the higher court has rejected the plea of lawyer Ivan Pavlov, director of the St.Petersburg branch of the Norwegian ecological human rights center Bellona. Last March the Presnya Court found lack of jurisdiction over the case for a district court. "The Presnya Court found that the case should be heard at the Moscow City Court because state secrets were in question", said Pavlov. The Moscow City Court found it right and will now consider the Bellona plea. Alexander Nikitin, ex-Capitain 1st Rank, is the board chairman of the St.Petersburg branch of the Norwegian ecological human rights center Bellona. The Federal Security Service (FSB) accused him of divulging state secrets and high treason for preparing a report on the radiation safety on the Northern fleet to Bellona. On December 22, 1999 the St.Petersburg City Court acquitted Nikitin. Return to Menu G. Nuclear Industry 1. Russia to Keep Storing Nuclear Waste EARLIER this week, news agencies reported that Russia would no longer store nuclear waste for Bulgaria's Kozlodui nuclear power plant. Russia would continue helping Bulgaria process spent fuel, but the processed waste would be sent back to Bulgaria for storage, officials from the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy were quoted as saying, the cited reasons being that according to a newly-released decree, it is illegal to store nuclear waste for other countries on Russian territory. But the Bulgarian Ministry of Energy and Energy Resources told The Sofia Echo that the Russian Nuclear Energy Act and recent amendments to the Environment Act did not prohibit technological storage and processing of spent fuel coming in from other countries. Exports of Kolzodui's spent fuel to Russia appear to be fully legal. The current agreement is that spent nuclear fuel is sent to Russia in terms of obligations set out by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that countries whose projects and utilities had been used for the construction of nuclear power plants, should be receiving back the spent fuel for reprocessing. Kozlodui was built in 1970 following an agreement between the governments of Bulgaria and former Soviet Union. A new agreement was reached between Bulgaria and Russia in 1995, in terms of which Russia would provide underground storage for nuclear waste of Kozlodui for 20 years. Kozlodui has no long-term spent fuel storage facilities. The plant is currently working on a storage facility, which would be the most modern of its kind in Eastern Europe. If it is completed by 2005-2006, the storage problem will be solved for the next 50 years. At this stage, before the nuclear waste is sent to Russia, it is stored at a special short-term spent fuel storage facility on the premises of Kozlodui. There is a strategic plan for its management over a short-term period, to 2005, and a long-term period, to 2020. The fuel is kept in specially designed containers compliant with international standards. Then, following a specially designed route by water and railway, the waste is transported to Russia. Bulgaria is now the biggest electricity-exporting nation in the Balkan peninsula. Kozlodui plant, the only nuclear plant in Bulgaria, which supplies 45 percent of the country's electricity and earns millions US dollars from exporting electricity to its Balkan neighbours. Return to Menu H. Official Statements 1. Russian-North Korean Consultations Held Consultations took place on August 13 between Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Losyukov and Kung Sok-ung, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. On the same day the Korean delegation was received by First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and State Secretary of the Russian MFA Valery Loshchinin. In the course of the meetings and conversations, which passed in a frank atmosphere, an exchange of views on issues in bilateral relations and on the situation in the Korean peninsula took place. The sides expressed satisfaction with the building-up of ties between Russia and the DPRK in the last few years and declared their readiness to further strengthen and develop them in line with the Treaty on Friendship, Good Neighborliness and Cooperation. The Russian side welcomed the DPRK's decision to participate in the six-way talks to resolve the complicated situation that has recently arisen in the Korean peninsula and expressed hope that a constructive solution would be found to this problem on the basis of ensuring a nuclear-free status for the peninsula and the security of the states located in this area of the world. The Korean side welcomed the efforts of Russia in the interests of safeguarding peace and security in Korea. Return to Menu 2. Russian-South Korean Consultations Held On August 13 Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Alexander Losyukov and First Deputy Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister of the Republic of Korea Kim Jae-sup, who is staying in Russia in connection with Republic of Korea Week in St. Petersburg, held consultations on the questions of bilateral relations and the situation in the Korean peninsula. On the same day Kim Jae-sup had a conversation with First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs and State Secretary of the Russian MFA Valery Loshchinin. The reciprocal desire of the sides to further deepen mutually beneficial cooperation in the spirit of partnership and to maintain a regular exchange of views on issues in bilateral relations and on pressing international problems was reaffirmed. Hope was expressed for the success of the upcoming six-way talks on resolving the situation in the Korean peninsula. It was emphasized on the Russian side that, given a constructive approach by all the participants in the talks, an optimal solution could be found ensuring a nuclear-free status for the Korean peninsula and the security of the states located on it. Return to Menu I. Links of Interest 1. US and Dutch Governments Launch Effort to Detect Terrorist Shipments of Nuclear Material -New Security Services at Seaports will Help Thwart Attempts to Smuggle Components for Nuclear Weapons and 'Dirty Bombs' Return to Menu DISCLAIMER: Nuclear News is presented for informational purposes only. Views presented in any given article are those of the individual author or source and not of RANSAC. RANSAC takes no responsibility for the technical accuracy of information contained in any article presented in Nuclear News. RANSAC's Nuclear News is compiled two to three times weekly. To be automatically removed from our mailing list, click on the following link: Remove Me From The List If you have questions/comments/concerns, please reply to news@216.119.87.134 |
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