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Threat From Unaccounted-For Russian Nuclear Material Equal to North Korean Program, U.S. Senator Says

By Mike Nartker
Global Security Newswire

WASHINGTON — The threat posed by quantities of Russian nuclear materials whose whereabouts are unknown is equal to or greater than that posed by North Korea’s nuclear efforts, the top Democrat on the Senate intelligence committee said Sunday (see GSN, Feb. 17).

“I think you can legitimately look at North Korea and the unaccounted-for nuclear weapons parts in Russia and have a real debate as to which is more threatening to the world right now,” Senator Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.) said on FOX News Sunday.

Last week, CIA Director Porter Goss testified before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that there was enough missing Russian nuclear material to develop a nuclear weapon. Goss also testified that he could not be certain that some of that material had not been obtained by terrorists.

Senior Russian officials, however, have denied allegations of stolen nuclear weapons or weapon-grade materials.

The issue is likely to be a key topic of discussion during Thursday’s scheduled meeting between U.S. President George W. Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Slovakian capital of Bratislava.

A report prepared last fall by a CIA in-house think tank, obtained last week by Global Security Newswire, also warns of “undetected smuggling” of Russian nuclear materials.

“We are concerned about the total amount of material that could have been diverted or stolen in the last 13 years,” says the November report, prepared by the National Intelligence Council.

Congress has directed the director of central intelligence to submit an annual report on the safety and security of Russian nuclear facilities and military forces. The November report updates information submitted to lawmakers in 2002.

The CIA last week declined to comment on the report.

Continued progress has been made on improving security enhancements at Russian civilian institutes and naval sites that house nuclear materials, according to the report. While Russia has made improvements in its own nuclear material, protection, control and accounting practices, “risks of undetected theft remain,” the report says.

Rockefeller on Sunday questioned Russia’s ability to guard nuclear materials. “The point is that a lot of those people who protect those places can be bribed,” he said.

Concerns also still exist that a lack of U.S. access to sensitive materials at Russian nuclear weapons sites has hindered security enhancement efforts, the CIA report says.

It also warns that Russia may not be able to maintain security upgrades the United States has helped to install.

“We are concerned that Russia may not be able to sustain U.S.-provided security upgrades of facilities over the long-term given the cost and technical sophistication of at least some of the equipment involved,” the report says.

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, which conducts a number of projects to upgrade security at Russian sites, did not return calls for comment.

“The key question” on whether Russia can sustain U.S.-installed security upgrades is Moscow’s own commitment to doing so, Matthew Bunn of Harvard University’s Managing the Atom project said today. While Russia has a growing economy, a budget surplus and personnel with experience in managing modern safeguards systems, he said, there is also a lack of dedicated budget line items for security at nuclear sites and lack of regulation on the types of terrorist threats sites should be able to defend against.

In addition to technical issues, Russian nuclear facilities also need personnel who have high levels of integrity and are competent to manage installed safeguards, said Bill Hoehn, Washington office director for the Russian American Nuclear Security Advisory Council.

“It’s a very serious issue,” Hoehn said today, referring to sustainability concerns.

The National Intelligence Council report says that the threat of an unauthorized launch or accidental use of a Russian nuclear weapon “is highly unlikely as long as current technical and procedural safeguards built into the command and control system remain in place and are effectively enforced.”

It warns, though, that despite increased security, Russian nuclear power plants “almost certainly will remain vulnerable to a well-planned and executed terrorist attack.”