SORT Of A Treaty, Joseph Cirincione & Jon Wolfsthal, Carnegie Analysis (5/14/2003)
A. Strategic Arms Reduction 1. Moscow, Washington Discuss Missile Reductions In Geneva
Yury Nikolayev
RIA Novosti
5/15/2003
(for personal use only)
MOSCOW - Geneva is hosting consultations between working groups from Russia and the USA, who discuss missile reductions, namely the numbers of nuclear warheads to be destroyed or stored away, Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov told a Thursday briefing in Moscow.
Although the sides have signed the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions, or the SOR, the Treaty on the Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms, or START-1, remains in force until the year after 2009, noted Mamedov. He did not rule out that once START-1 expired, Russia and the USA could proceed to negotiate a new treaty on the reduction of strategic offensive weapons. He also said he thought the Americans would be insisting on the elimination of the warheads.
The SOR, which Russia and the USA signed in Moscow earlier this month, envisages the reduction of the numbers of operationally deployed warheads to 1,700-2,000 each. The number of warheads to be destroyed or stored away has not been discussed yet. According to the SOR, each side is to determine it on its own.
MOSCOW - Reaching out to improve relations with the United States, Russia's lower house of parliament on Wednesday voted to ratify the latest U.S.-Russian nuclear arms control treaty that slashes the nuclear arsenals of both countries by two-thirds, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said.
After considering the treaty in closed-door debate, the Duma, the lower house of parliament, voted 294 in favor of the treaty while 134 voted against it. The U.S. Senate already has approved the accord, formally called the Moscow Treaty. Russia's upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, must still approve the treaty in order for the ratification to take effect, but that vote is expected to be a formality.
The Duma's ratification vote came the same day that U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell was holding talks with Ivanov aimed at paving the way for a smooth summit between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush scheduled in several weeks.
The Duma had dragged its feet on ratification of the treaty because of the U.S.-led war in Iraq, which Russia opposed.
Putin used a meeting Tuesday with Duma leaders to urge lawmakers to ratify the treaty, calling it an "important document in the sphere of strategic stability."
"Its provisions enable us to develop our strategic forces at a level of reasonable sufficiency, in line with the country's economic capabilities and the dynamics of the military and political situation in the world," Putin said, according to Russian news agencies.
The Moscow Treaty calls on Russia and the United States to cut their strategic nuclear arsenals by about two-thirds, to 1,700 to 2,200 warheads, by 2012.
The treaty allows each country to stockpile the warheads, which are to be taken off-duty, contrary to Russia's initial push for their destruction. The cash-strapped Russian military cannot afford to maintain nuclear arsenals on par with the United States.
Hard-line opponents of the treaty in Russia called it treacherous.
Communist lawmaker Nikolai Kolomeitsev on Wednesday proposed to take the treaty ratification off the agenda, saying that it would lead to the "catastrophic decline of Russia's security".
"This treaty is a gift to Bush," said Communist Party chief Gennady Zyuganov.
The ratification debate occurred behind closed doors in the presence of both Russia's foreign and defense ministers. Putin's representative to the Duma, Alexander Kotenkov, suggested that a closed debate would allow lawmakers to get answers to sensitive questions related to Russian nuclear forces.
The treaty supporters say that it would allow Russia to retain its aging Soviet-era missiles equipped with multiple nuclear warheads, which form the core of the nation's nuclear arsenals and were to be scrapped under the earlier START II arms reduction treaty, which Russia has never ratified.
In the draft ratification document, Duma urged the government to provide more funds to maintain the nation's nuclear forces on a "level that would guarantee the deterrence against any aggression."
Pointing at the treaty's provision that allows each party to opt out of it on three months' notice, the Duma said that Russia can use this right in case of "significant buildup in strategic offensive weapons of some nation or a group of nations" or the deployment of a missile defense system "capable of significantly reducing the efficiency of Russia's strategic nuclear forces."
Although it didn't name the United States, the provision was a clear reference to the proposed U.S. missile shield. Washington says that deploying missile defenses is not aimed against Russia but many Russian lawmakers and military officials voiced concern that the deployment could erode the deterrent value of Russia's nuclear arsenals.
After years of Russia's fervent protests against U.S. missile defense plans, Putin reacted calmly when the United States withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty barring the deployment of such a missile shield, saying that the move was a mistake but not a threat to Russia.
3. Powell: SOR Ratification Shows That Russia, U.S. Can Work Together
Interfax
5/14/2003
(for personal use only)
MOSCOW - While meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said that the ratification of the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions shows that Russia and the U.S. can work together to resolve serious international issues, including those involving nuclear reduction.
The Russian State Duma ratified the Treaty on Strategic offensive Reductions on Wednesday, May 14.
While commenting on the ratification of the treaty, Ivanov said: "I was asked whether the ratification of the treaty is a gift to Colin Powell due to his arrival in Moscow. I think that it is first of all a gift to our people, because the purpose of this document is to ensure their security."
MOSCOW - The State Duma of Russia at its closed Wednesday session ratified the Russian-American Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions, SOR.
The treaty was ratified with by 294-134 votes, with no abstentions, chairman of the Duma Defense Committee Alexei Arbatov reported.
The SOR Treaty was signed on May 24, 2002, during the Russian-US summit in Moscow by Presidents Vladimir Putin and George Bush. The document envisages that each party by December 31, 2012, reduce its strategic nuclear warheads to 1,700-2,200, which is approximately 3 times lower than the threshold level provided by the current START-1 Treaty.
In compliance with the law on ratification, the fulfillment of the Treaty is based on preserving the potential of Russian strategic nuclear forces necessary to ensure national security, taking into account the dynamics of the US deployment of the anti-missile defense system, as well as on the basis of preserving the military alert of the Russian strategic nuclear forces.
The law also provides for priority financing of Russia's strategic nuclear forces, measures to preserve and develop the necessary laboratory and testing facilities and industrial capacities, as well as the effort for safe elimination and utilization of strategic offensive arms and fulfillment of the SOR Treaty and the USSR-US Treaty on reduction of strategic offensive arms /START/, signed in Moscow on July 31, 1991.
The reduction of strategic offensive arms falling under the SOR Treaty shall take place with preserving their fighting strength for the maximum possible exploitation period, the document points out.
The law ensures safe conditions for exploitation, storage, elimination and utilization of Russia's strategic offensive arms.
In compliance with it, in the process of fulfilling the SOR Treaty, the President of the Russian Federation shall determine major directions of the state policy in development of the country's strategic nuclear forces and nuclear disarmament with consideration to carrying out measures to fulfill the SOR Treaty.
Within three months after the Treaty comes into force, the Russian President shall submit to the Federal Assembly information on the main parameters of the program for developing strategic nuclear forces.
Also, the President shall determine major directions of Russia's international activities in the sphere of strategic offensive arms and anti-missile defense in order to strengthen strategic stability and ensure national security.
The chambers of the Federal Assembly will consider the Russian government's annual report on the progress of fulfilling the SOR and START Treaties.
B. Missile Defense 1. Moscow, Washington Consider Legalization Of Missile Defense Pledge
Interfax
5/15/2003
(for personal use only)
MOSCOW - Moscow and Washington are considering a document to legalize the pledge for missile defense cooperation, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov replied to a question from Interfax at a Thursday briefing in Moscow.
"We wish to legalize coordinated measures of missile defense cooperation in some sort of document," Mamedov remarked.
The Russian-American group for missile defense met in Geneva in April, and the sides "came close to coordinating such a document," Mamedov stressed. "We will try to bring the negotiations [on drafting the document] to a logical end," the deputy minister said.
C. Nuclear Smuggling 1. N. Korea Has Dozens Of Nukes, Top Defector Tells Magazine
Agence France-Presse
5/14/2003
(for personal use only)
TOKYO - A man claiming to be a former North Korean army general who fled the Stalinist state late last year has told a Japanese publication Pyongyang secretly imported nuclear bombs from the former Soviet Union and developed dozens of its own.
The revelations were among details about North Korea's military command and its leader Kim Jong-Il contained in a 13-page article in the June edition of the respected monthly Japanese magazine Gendai (Modern Times).
In an interview with the magazine, the general said the nuclear weapons were imported in 1983 and that North Korea now has four Soviet-made nuclear missiles which, with a range of 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles), could reach the west coast of the United States.
"The North Korean army even has tens of nuclear weapons it has developed itself in addition to those made by the former Soviet Union," the general was quoted as saying.
The four nuclear-armed missiles are stored at an underground site in Potaeri, in Samjiyon district at the foot of Mount Paekdu on the border with China, he said.
His revelations, treated with caution by analysts here, were made at a time when North Korea, whose nuclear program has provoked international concern and anger, has voiced fears it could be the next target of a pre-emptive US attack after Iraq.
The article said the general was the highest-ranked North Korean defector since Hwang Jang-Yop, top ideologue and secretary of the ruling Workers Party, was granted political asylum in South Korea in 1997.
The magazine, owned by the Kodansha publishing house which has run a number of North Korean exclusives, withheld the man's name, exact rank and other details at his request, using a pseudonym, An Yong-Chol.
A Gendai editor told AFP the general was aged around 60 and lives in an Asian country, and that the interview was held in mid-April. He declined to say where the interview took place.
An claimed to have served in the Korean People's Army for more than 30 years, the last 10 years close to Kim Jong-Il, and had met the supreme leader many times.
He told the magazine his former position meant that he continued to get information from North Korea's elite, adding, "I maintain channels with the Kim Jong-Il family."
The general revealed that during a 50-day disappearance from the public eye up to April 3, Kim monitored and analyzed the US-led war on Iraq with an "operations team" of some 120 top army and party cadres.
The analysis took place at a "secret underground command post" below the 444-metre (1,480-foot) Guksa peak in Pyongyang.
An also claimed Kim bought more than 20 sophisticated MiG-31 fighters and deployed them near Pyongyang in 2000.
But analysts cautioned that North Korean defectors often had a vested interest in inflating their information or distorting it for various purposes.
"The former Soviet Union was most careful not to allow the proliferation of nuclear weapons, even to Warsaw Pact allies," said Hideshi Takesada, professor at the National Institute for Defense Studies.
"This may possibly be a (case of a) defector who has been sent by the North or wants to whip up fear as a gift for the North," he said.
Pyon Jin-Il, editor of the Korea Report newsletter, said he could not believe MiG planes had been sold without being detected by South Korea or the United States, and with Vladmir Putin in charge in Moscow.
An told Gendai he had learned that Kim has become confident about his country's ability to withstand the United States' military might.
He cited Kim as noting that the Iraq army lost to US-led troops because Iraq has vast deserts where it is relatively easy to spot underground military bases.
"North Korea consists mostly of mountainous areas and underground fortresses cannot be discovered. Therefore, Kim has become more confident that North Korea will not become a 'second Iraq,'" he said.
D. Russia-U.S. 1. Putin Agrees Iran Poses Nuclear Threat
Barry Schweid
Associated Press
5/15/2003
(for personal use only)
SOFIA, Bulgaria - Edging closer to the Bush administration's view, Russian President Vladimir Putin is registering concern about Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions and there will be further discussion of the issue when Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov holds talks in Washington next week, a senior U.S. official said.
Putin and Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov did not get into specifics in talks with Powell in Moscow on Wednesday, but it was apparent to the U.S. side that findings by the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran has a vigorous weapons program was getting through to the Russians.
The Russians made clear they, too, are concerned about nuclear activity in Iran and they do not want a nuclear-armed Iran in the neighborhood, the official said Thursday.
The issue is on the agenda for President Bush's visit to St. Petersburg June 1 for talks with Putin. The Russian president is trying to establish a positive basis for the talks, said the official on condition of anonymity.
The Russian defense minister is to hold talks in Washington May 21-22.
Powell flew Thursday to Bulgaria's capital to thank the Eastern European country for its support in the war with Iraq. The stop also marks the 100th anniversary of establishment of diplomatic relations between Bulgaria and the United States.
Putin tried to move past the U.S.-Russian split over the Iraq war and edged closer to the Bush administration over technology sales to Iran.
But the two sides did not settle their disagreement over lifting U.N. sanctions against Iraq. Secretary of State Colin Powell said they had not resolved the issue of weapons searches, and Foreign Minister Ivanov stressed Russia's insistence on a ``legal basis'' for governmental transition in Baghdad.
Determined to set a positive agenda for Bush's visit, Powell met with Putin at the Kremlin and three times with Ivanov, in addition to having dinner with the foreign minister.
``We could congratulate each other,'' Putin said as the Russian Duma, or lower house of parliament, approved a pact with the United States to cut long-range nuclear warheads by two-thirds over the next 10 years. It was ratified by the U.S. Senate in March.
Putin went on to declare ``we have had a lot of arguments recently concerning the Iraq problem, but we have successfully overcome these differences,'' referring to Russia's objections to the war with Iraq.
The split did not shake the ``basic foundation of our bilateral relationship,'' he said.
Powell acknowledged disagreements in the recent past, ``especially with respect to Iraq, but now, I think, we have the opportunity to move forward and all of us join together to help the Iraqi people to a better life.''
Still, while the United States wants an unconditional lifting of penalties against Iraq, the Russians want only a suspension as well as a continuation of U.N. weapons searches.
Ivanov said the priority now ``is to create a legal basis for a broad international involvement in postwar rehabilitation'' of Iraq. This appeared to reflect Moscow's position favoring a prominent role for the United Nations in rebuilding Iraq after the U.S.-led war topple Saddam Hussein's government.
At an economic conference in Moscow, Deputy Foreign Minister Yuri Fedotov said the U.S. resolution that would lift sanctions immediately and phase out the oil-for-food program is ``a very difficult resolution for us.''
Russia's objective, he said, is to ``bring to a minimum our economic losses and political losses from this resolution.''
Russia ``proceeds from the assumption that all approved contracts must be fulfilled or compensated in an appropriate way,'' Fedotov said. He placed the value of Russian contracts with Iraq at $4 billion.
Putin called his meeting with Powell ``a good opportunity to check our watches'' before he sees Bush in June. He said the Duma's ratification of the arms accord was an accomplishment for both countries.
But ahead of that meeting, Russian technology sales to Iran pose a potential snarl. The Russians are resisting ending the sales despite urgent appeals by Washington, which argues that the technology significantly aids Iran's nuclear weapons aspirations. The standoff is preventing resolution of the most contentious dispute in the U.S.-Russian relationship.
Without elaboration, Powell said, ``We have come a little closer as to how we should deal with our concerns.''
The International Atomic Energy Agency has found that Iran has a vibrant weapons program, and Powell had hoped this evidence would help change minds when he met with the Russian leaders.
On the U.N. resolution, Russia wants assurances that Iraq's alleged banned weapons - the main reason Bush gave for going to war - are not being hidden, before Moscow will support removing the sanctions. Also in dispute is the role of U.N. weapons inspectors. The Bush administration sees no further use for them and is resorting to its own specialists to continue its search.
Putin hopes to strike a deal with Bush for cooperation in missile defense systems, having yielded to Bush's abandonment of the 1972 treaty that banned national missile defenses. Approval of the arms reduction pact may help.
MOSCOW - After months of acrimony over Iraq, Russian President Vladimir Putin today sounded newly positive about his country's relations with the United States, declaring cheerfully to visiting Secretary of State Colin L. Powell that "we have successfully overcome our differences."
But Powell, who met with Putin here today to discuss Iraq and other issues, said the two countries had not yet agreed on the wording of a new U. N. resolution that would lift economic sanctions against Iraq.
"We have described our positions to each other," Powell said at the Kremlin. "There are outstanding issues."
In another conciliatory gesture, orchestrated by the Kremlin, the lower house of the Russian parliament today approved a nuclear arms reduction treaty that President Bush and Putin signed a year ago. While the accord's approval was a foregone conclusion, the Duma, with the Kremlin's approval, put off consideration of it in March to protest the U.S. attack on Iraq.
Today, the treaty was approved by a vote of 294 to 134. "It is clear to everyone that the treaty is beneficial for Russia," said Vladimir Pekhtin, leader of the pro-Kremlin Unity party. The treaty commits both sides to reduce their nuclear arsenals by roughly two-thirds, from 6,000 warheads apiece to between 1,700 and 2,200.
Powell's main mission in Moscow is to win Putin's support for the resolution that the United States, Britain and Spain put before the Security Council on Friday and hope to bring to a vote by June 3. The measure would end 13 years of economic and financial sanctions on Iraq and endorse U.S. and British control over the nation's economic and political reconstruction for at least a year.
Russia had insisted that the United Nations lead efforts to rebuild Iraq and that the Security Council not take any action that would legitimize the U.S.-led invasion, which the Kremlin strongly opposed. Russia is also concerned about what will happen to its prewar agreements to provide $1.5 billion worth of goods to Iraq and to develop Iraqi oil fields.
The Kremlin wants U.N. weapons inspectors to return to Iraq to certify that the country is free of weapons of mass destruction. The inspectors are not mentioned in the proposed resolution.
Like France and Germany, Russia is anxious to avoid another damaging rift in the Security Council. The German government has suggested that it will support the new U.S-backed resolution, while French officials have said their attitude in the Security Council will be positive and constructive.
Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, who met three times with Powell here today, said Russia still favors "a legal basis for broad international involvement," language that analysts interpreted to mean giving the United Nations a lead role in postwar Iraq. But he quickly added, "We do not seek to complicate the resolution to create artificial barriers to adopting the resolution."
Putin suggested that the rift over Iraq -- Russia's most serious disagreement with the United States in more than three years -- was just temporary. "We succeeded in maintaining the basic foundation of our bilateral relationship," he told Powell at the start of their meeting.
Putin was much more combative when he talked about Iraq on two occasions last month. Then, in biting terms, he pointed out the U.S. failure to find prohibited weapons. "Where are these arsenals of weapons of mass destruction?" Putin said at a news conference with British Prime Minister Tony Blair two weeks ago.
The United States is anxious to avoid another "train wreck" in the Security Council, one American diplomat here said.
A senior U.S. diplomat suggested Tuesday that U.S. and Russian oil companies might be able to cooperate in developing Iraqi oil if Russia lends its support to the new resolution. "There is an element of continued resentment," he said. "We want to encourage them to turn the page and be pragmatic."
Officials said both sides used today's sessions to check the temperature of relations before a Bush-Putin summit in St. Petersburg at the end of the month. The talks took place shortly after deadly bombings in Saudi Arabia and Chechnya, attacks that Ivanov said proved that countries must combine their efforts against terrorists.
Powell and Putin also discussed the nuclear threat in North Korea, efforts to restart the peace process in the Middle East and U.S. concerns about help that Russia is providing Iran in building a nuclear reactor. Iran says the reactor is intended solely for power generation. The Bush administration contends Iran is on a quest to acquire nuclear weapons.
Powell said today's discussions brought the United States and Russia "a little closer as to how we should deal with our concerns" about Iran.
3. Russian-US Talks In Moscow Focus On Situation In Iran
Yury Nikolayev
RIA Novosti
5/15/2003
(for personal use only)
MOSCOW - The Russian-US talks in Moscow focused on the situation in Iran and the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov told a briefing in Moscow.
According to him, US Secretary of State Colin Powell expressed US concerns over the situation in Iran. Moscow has been discussing this issue with various US administrations for ten years already, Mamedov said.
Russia is concerned about the situation in Iran "even more than the USA", as Iran is located in the region bordering on Russia, Mamedov noted. According to Mamedov, only IAEA international inspectors can say for sure if Iran violates commitment to the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction or not.
Moscow attracted the US attention to the fact that "some Western companies are helping implement nuclear programs in Iran". However, Mamedov did not name these companies. "Serious consultations on this issue are in progress and we'd better abstain from mutual accusations," Mamedov concluded adding that Moscow entirely fulfilled its obligations to the international community on the non-proliferation of nuclear and missile technologies.
United States Secretary of State Colin Powell has arrived in Moscow for talks with President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov.
The talks are expected to focus on the post-war situation in Iraq and Russia's nuclear co-operation with Iran.
But the war on terror, which united the two countries in the wake of the 11 September attacks, is likely to be high on the agenda following the bomb attacks in Saudi Arabia.
Mr. Powell traveled to Moscow from Riyadh, where he visited the scene of Monday's suicide bomb attacks, which killed at least 29 people.
Correspondents say that top of the agenda for Mr. Powell's meeting will be the US draft resolution to be debated in the United Nations Security Council on Thursday which could lead to the lifting of the sanctions on Iraq.
Under the draft resolution the US and its coalition allies will be afforded the right to sell Iraqi oil and spend the profits without international supervision.
Russia is opposed to a resolution that affords such wide-reaching powers and also says that UN inspectors must be sent back into Iraq to verify that there are no weapons of mass destruction in the country.
The BBC's Moscow correspondent, Steven Rosenberg, says relations between Moscow and Washington were damaged by the conflict in Iraq.
The US accused Russia of arming Saddam Hussein and Moscow in turn slammed Washington for breaking international law.
Our correspondent says the US and Russia have diametrically opposed views about the world order.
Russia wants a multi-polar planet, a balance of power, with the UN playing the key role of international referee, but the US will not be tied down to that.
Mr. Powell will try to convince Russia to accept what America sees as the new geo-political reality post-Saddam, urging Moscow to back the UN draft resolution.
Another divisive issue expected to be discussed is Russia's nuclear technology transfers to Iran. The US says that Tehran is trying to develop nuclear weapons - a charge Tehran vehemently denies.
Our correspondent in Moscow says the war on terror strengthened US-Russians relations and now as both countries try to patch up their damaged relations, it is the fight against international terrorism that is most likely to unite the two countries.
This week's suicide bomb attacks, first in Chechnya, then in Saudi Arabia, have reminded Moscow and Washington just why they pledged to work together after 11 September.
On Wednesday morning, Mr. Powell also has a meeting with Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha, who is visiting Moscow, to discuss new moves to ease tension between India and Pakistan.
5. Powell In Moscow Talks As Suicide Bombers Strike
Gazeta.ru
5/14/2003
(for personal use only)
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell began talks with Russian leaders on Wednesday covering terrorism to Iraqi oil, on a tour haunted by deadly suicide attacks in Saudi Arabia and Russia's rebel Chechnya.
The Bush administration's war on terror was certain to dominate the visit after Monday's three suicide bombings in Riyadh killed at least 29 people, including seven Americans. Hours after Powell arrived in Russia, at least 20 people were killed in a new suicide bomb attack in the rebel region of Chechnya, Itar-Tass news agency said.
The latest attack came just two days after three suicide bombers drove a truck loaded with explosives into a government office complex in northern Chechnya, killing 59 people. "The bloody acts of terror in Chechnya and Saudi Arabia can bring Moscow and Washington together," read a headline in the Russian daily Vremya Novostei.
In Moscow, Powell will prepare for June 1 summit between presidents Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush in St Petersburg when the two men will seek to show their good relations are still on track despite divisions over the Iraqi war.
In one boost to those hopes, Russia's State Duma responded to an appeal by Putin by ratifying the most recent U.S.-Russia nuclear arms treaty. The so-called Treaty of Moscow, signed by Putin and Bush a year ago and already ratified by U.S. Congress, will slash the number of deployed strategic nuclear arsenals.
"We believe the entry into force of the treaty will be a very important page in Russia-U.S. relations and for the world," Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov told reporters before the start of talks with Powell. "I would like to stress that despite our disagreement, including over the Iraq crisis, Russian foreign policy is oriented towards constructing a long-term friendly partnership with the United States."
Powell, scheduled to have talk later with Putin in the Kremlin, was equally upbeat. "Not only does (the treaty) lessen the number of nuclear weapons but it shows how the United States and the Russian Federation can work together on issues important to the world."
Powell, who flew to Moscow from Riyadh, will also raise U.S. concerns about Moscow's nuclear deals with Iran, another issue that divides the two countries. It was the sixth stop on Powell's Middle East and European trip dominated by talks about a Middle East peace plan and Washington's promises to start Iraq's transition from U.S. military occupation to Iraqi civilian government.
He will also discuss a draft U.N. resolution that gives the United States and its allies the right to sell Iraqi oil and spend the revenue without international supervision.
Russia opposed the U.S.-led war on Iraq and is reluctant to give the occupying powers such wide authority, as is France, another veto-wielding member of the U.N. Security Council. But U.S. officials say the debate will not be so divisive as the one over a resolution on attacking Iraq. Both Russia and France threatened to use their vetoes and a vote was never held.
The most contentious issues are the role of the U.N. special representative in Iraq, control of the oil sales and revenue, and whether U.N. inspectors should return to Iraq to look for weapons of mass destruction, he added.
Washington says oil contracts are up to the next Iraqi government.
The prickly issue of Russian nuclear technology transfers to Iran will also be raised. The United States says the Islamic republic is trying to develop atomic weapons but Tehran says its intentions are peaceful. Washington says it fears nuclear proliferation will eventually put an atomic bomb in the hands of Islamic militants like the al Qaeda group, which Washington says was behind the Riyadh attacks.
E. Russia-Iran 1. No Reasons To Doubt Transparency Of Iran's Nuclear Program
Kseniya Kaminskaya & Oksana Polishchyuk
ITAR-TASS
5/15/2003
(for personal use only)
MOSCOW - Russia has no reasons to doubt the transparency of Iran's nuclear program, Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Mamedov said Thursday.
"Russia is concerned about the risks of nuclear arms proliferation to a no smaller extent that the United States. However, we are far less emotional on the issue," he said. "Russia is interested in strengthening the regime of nuclear arms non-proliferation. We fear it might be used in regional conflicts."
Moscow is expecting a report from the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Mohammed ElBaradei, who visited Iran recently.
"We are interested in clearing up - with the help of the International Atomic Energy Agency - certain issues concerning Iran's nuclear program. Iran has been telling everybody its nuclear research does not pose a threat to the international community," Mamedov said.
About the situation in the Korean peninsula the Russian diplomat said Russia's concerns regarding Iran were fewer than those over the North Korean problem.
2. Atomic Energy Minister: No Reason To Halt Construction Of Power Plant In Iran
German Solomatin
ITAR-TASS
5/13/2003
(for personal use only)
MOSCOW - There is no reason to halt the construction of the first reactor of the nuclear power plant in Iran, Alexander Rumyantsev, the Russian minister of atomic energy, told Tass.
He said the "Ministry of Atomic Energy closely follows the implementation of the nuclear program of Iran where Russian specialists are assembling the first power-generating set of the Bushehr nuclear power plant".
"During regular bilateral contacts the Iranian side invariably assures us that Iran's nuclear program is entirely peaceful," the minister said.
Moreover, what is being built by Russian specialists in Iran has already been placed under the monitoring of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Iranian side has made assurances that it intends to place under the IAEA supervision the test installation for isotope enrichment in the city of Natas as soon as nuclear materials are delivered there.
The minister said that the session of the IAEA Board of Governors will be held at the IAEA central office in Vienna from June 16 to June 20 and the question of Iran's nuclear program will be one of the items discussed. He said a special report of the IAEA director-general is prepared for the session and appropriate recommendations will be drawn from it.
"If the international community adduces weighty arguments contrary to Iran's nuclear program, we will be prepared to discuss them in the IAEA framework," Rumyantsev said.
F. Russia-North Korea 1. South Korean And US Leaders Spotlight Russia's Role In Solving Nuclear Problem On Korean Peninsula
Ivan Zakharchenko
RIA Novosti
5/15/2003
(for personal use only)
TOKYO - The leaders of South Korea and the USA, No Mu-hyon and George Bush, believe that Russia can play a constructive role in settling the crisis around the DPRK nuclear program, says the joint statement of the two presidents. The statement was published in Seoul on Thursday and was devoted to the results of the two presidents' meeting in Washington.
Having pointed to the role of Russia, they at the same time believe it is necessary that the Republic of Korea and Japan should participate in multilateral negotiations on the nuclear problem on the Korean Peninsula, above all.
At the moment only the DPRK, USA and China take part in them. Pyongyang fear that a great number of partners in the dialogue will make the solution of the problem more difficult.
No Mu-hyon and George Bush confirmed that a solution could be found by peaceful means. However, the statement says, they believe that if a threat to peace and security on the Korean Peninsula is growing additional measures will be considered.
The statement does not specify what measures may be taken.
The South Korean and US presidents pointed out that the humanitarian assistance to North Korea should not be dovetailed with the political situation around this country.
2. Russian Government: No Evidence Of Nuke Arms In N. Korea
Associated Press
5/14/2003
(for personal use only)
MOSCOW - Russia has no evidence that North Korea has nuclear weapons, Atomic Energy Minister Alexander Rumyantsev said Wednesday, according to the ITAR-Tass news agency.
But Rumyantsev said that Moscow, which has friendly relations with the communist North, does not have any special sources of information.
The Korean Peninsula has been the focus of a nuclear crisis since the United States said in October that North Korea had revealed that it had a secret nuclear program.
Amid escalating tensions, Pyongyang withdrew from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in January. This week, the North removed the last remaining legal obstacle to the development of nuclear weapons by pulling out of a a nuclear-free accord with South Korea. "There are very serious doubts of a scientific and technological nature that North Korea has been able to make nuclear weapons with such tight deadlines," ITAR-Tass quoted Rumyantsev as saying.
"There has been no proof either in special literature or at conferences," he said, adding that Russia has had no nuclear contacts with the North since 1993.
While Russia has made efforts to ease the tension, it has also said that its influence over North Korea is limited.
Russia's Foreign Ministry on Tuesday urged North Korea to reconsider its decision to abrogate the agreement with the South, and Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov called the North's decision regrettable.
North Korea accuses the United States of planning to attack it. Washington says it wants to resolve the standoff through dialogue, although U.S. officials have not ruled out a military option.
Russia has called for direct dialogue between Washington and Pyongyang to defuse the crisis but has also said multilateral efforts could be used, with South Korea, China, Japan and Russia also participating.
G. Nuclear Submarines 1. Typhoon Subs to Ship Oil and Gas (excerpted)
Igor Kudrik
Bellona Foundation
5/15/2003
(for personal use only)
An old - and some say better dead - idea is having its day again as Arkhangelsk Region Governor Anatoly Yefremov pushes for the shipment of oil and gas on refurbished ballistic missile submarines.
Anatoly Yefremov, the flamboyant governor of Russia's northwest Arkhangelsk region - home to the flagging Severodvisnk submarine shipyards - is making a push to use nuclear submarines to ship oil, gas and cargo under polar ice to Russia's far flung northern territories.
The surprise announcement came during a seminar held recently in the Norwegian city of Kirkenes - a mere half hour from the Russian border. The subject of the seminar was a broad view of commercial activities to stimulate the Barents Sea region. For this purpose, Yefremov came prepared with his submarine plan - adding the suggestion that Norway foot part of the bill for the dangerous enterprise.
"We look at it as realistic and economically favorable to use nuclear submarines for oil and gas transport," Yefremov was quoted by news agencies as saying.
Yefremov's proposal was met with little enthusiasm by Norwegian Minister of Trade and Industry, Ansgar Gabrielsen.
Nevertheless, Gabrielsen and others at the conference recognize that an oil boom from Siberia is just around the corner - especially with the unstable situation in the Middle East following the American invasion of Iraq - and it is predicted by many that Russia may, within the next five years, supply one fourth of the US oil needs.
According to Yefremov, the submarines could take up to 10,000 tons of cargo on-board and ship it under the polar ice to tankers waiting in the Barents Sea. These ships - after the considerable engineering required to develop technologies to transfer oil from drilling platforms to the submarines, and, later, to the waiting tankers - would then deliver their cargo world-wide. The only problem, as Yefremov saw it, lay in the financing - which he suggested could come from Norway.
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But inescapable difficulties remain with redesigning the Typhoons and Deltas for cargo and tanker use: The Typhoons, which is the largest submarine in the Russian fleet, has a capacity of only 10,000 tons. A regular surface tanker can hold at least four times that. A so-called super-tanker can carry as much as 120,000 to 150,000 tons - figures that case serious doubts on the economic viability of Typhoon and Delta class subs use, which, with their dwindling numbers, cannot compete with even half of the shipments supplied through the surface industry.
The upcoming offshore oil drilling is likely to start in the shallow eastern sections of the Barents Sea and in the Pechora Sea. These waters can be as shallow as 60 meters and the ice can present additional difficulties, when it can reach 10 meters from the surface.
To operate in these shallow waters the Soviet Union designed a special class of nuclear powered icebreakers. By contrast, a Typhoon is unlikely to operate effectively in 60 meters waters - its drought is over 11.5 meters and length is more than 170 meters, making the enterprise problematic and dangerous.
Another problem not only for the perspective underwater oil tankers, but even for operational submarines is the poor infrastructure, which makes the whole project even more unprofitable.
The Soviet Union built six Typhoon class submarines. The average age of these submarines is some 15 to 20 years old. The last Typhoon was commissioned in 1989.
Since then, under cooperative threat reduction, or CTR agreements, with the US government, three of those submarines are scheduled to be retired, and, eventually, dismantled. One Typhoon is currently being dismantled at the Zvezdochka shipyard in Severodvinsk - a less than propitious history for a class of submarines meant to be remodeled to carry oil under polar ice.
Three remaining Typhoons will limp through service at least till 2010. According to experts, there is no upgrade currently available that would make these aging submarines safer for the task Yefromov requires of them.
The Delta-III class submarines - the other prospective work-horse for Yefremov's oil and cargo transport scheme - are gradually being taken out of service and dismantled by CTR. Three of these subs are apparently still in service in the Northern Fleet, and a total of seven Delta-IV submarines will remain the core of Russia's strategic forces at least till 2015.
Using these subs as oil tankers, for which purpose they were not originally designed, will not only increase the risk of oil spills but also of radioactivity release in case of an accident.
Practical matters such as poorly trained crews, absent legislation and regulations that will govern the safety proceedings for use of submarines as underwater tankers only worsen the matters.
But safety is not the only issue. Russia's nuclear powered icebreakers have never been welcomed in any international ports. It is unlikely that rebuilt Typhoons will enjoy a warm reception anywhere but in the Northern Fleet bases.
2. Soviet Nuclear Subs Might Be Refitted As Tankers
Reuters
5/14/2003
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Once the pride of the Soviet navy, nuclear submarines could be refitted for a more humdrum life as oil tankers in the Arctic, according to a Russian regional governor.
"We see it as very economic and realistic to use atomic submarines for transporting oil and gas," Anatoly Yefremov, the governor of Archangelsk northern region, was quoted on Wednesday as saying by Norwegian NRK public radio. He told a seminar in northern Norway that submarines, of the Typhoon class depicted in Tom Clancy's spy thriller "The Hunt for Red October," could carry about 10,000 tons of oil if missile launch rooms were converted into tanks. This is small compared with 280,000 tons that a VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) carries.
Russia is seeking to develop oil and gas fields in the Arctic where tankers risk colliding with iceberg or being buffeted by fierce winter storms. Submarines could be less risky by escaping the rough weather.
But environmentalists rejected the proposal as too costly and dangerous. One of the main yards for building submarines is at Severodinsk, near the city of Archangelsk. "The consequences of an accident with a nuclear submarine filled with oil would be much more dramatic than a normal oil tanker," said Nils Boehmer, a nuclear scientist who works for Norwegian environmental group Bellona. "It could be very difficult to go in and clean up any spill because of radiation from the reactors," he said.
He said Russia had six Typhoon submarines, two of which were currently being dismantled with U.S. funding, adding he was surprised Yefremov was reviving the idea of using submarines for oil, an idea suggested after the Cold War. "There are no surplus submarines lying around waiting for new missions because they will be dismantled," he said. "This would be a very expensive way of carrying oil and 10,000 tons is relatively small capacity."
Boehmer said that Russia tested civilian uses for submarines in the 1990s - in 1995, a Victor class submarine delivered a load of potatoes and fruit east along the coast of Siberia to the Yamal peninsula.
3. Norway To Fund Decommissioning Of Two Nuclear Submarines
Bellona Foundation
5/13/2003
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Norway has sent a note through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs proposing to fund decommissioning of two multipurpose nuclear submarines in the Northern region of Russia.
"Now we are preparing official papers demonstrating positive answer of the Russian side and negotiating the contract," Deputy Minister of Atomic Energy Sergey Antipov was appointed by Chairman of the Russian Government Mikhail Kasianov the Co-Chair of Russia-Norway Cooperation Commission. The Commission was created on August 13th, 1998, led by former Deputy Minister V. Lebedev who is now replaced by Mr. Antipov. The Russia-Norway cooperation in nuclear and radiation safety is backed-up by the bilateral agreement and ongoing contracts dealing with rehabilitation of the site in Adreeva Bay where irradiated fuel from retired nuclear subs generated during years of operation. The activities will include continuation of ongoing projects as well as replacement of radioisotope power sources, which supply electricity to lighthouses and other means of navigation with other power sources (solar, wind).
Antipov said that Norway also participates in the trilateral military-and-environmental cooperation (AMEC) which involves the US. "We have done a number of works under this cooperation to include development of liquid and solid radwaste reprocessing facilities, manufacturing a series of containers and building of temporary storage sites for containers with irradiated nuclear fuel."
He explained that this is a rather extensive program and it would be continued. In addition, Norway plays the leading role among the western partners to work out the multilateral agreement on nuclear and environmental cooperative program in the North West of Russia (MNEPR).
"Completing this agreement will allow expanding and promoting cooperation in this field", Antipov added.
H. Announcements 1. On the Adoption by State Duma of a Federal Law on Ratification of the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions
Daily News Bulletin: Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation
5/15/2003
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On May 14 the State Duma passed a Federal Law on Ratification of the Russian-American Treaty on Strategic Offensive Reductions (SOR Treaty), signed in Moscow on May 24, 2002, by the Presidents of Russia and the United States.
This decision was preceded by a comprehensive discussion of the provisions of the Treaty, as well as of the likely implications of its implementation in the political, military, economic and other fields during the hearings in committees of the State Duma and the Federation Council with the participation of authoritative experts from federal bodies of executive power.
The SOR Treaty is called upon to become an important landmark on the road of a drastic reduction of the strategic offensive arms of Russia and the United States and in the historic process of nuclear disarmament as a whole. It provides for the lowering of the levels of strategic nuclear warheads to 1,700-2,200 for each party by the end of 2012, that is, approximately by three times, compared to the levels provided by the START Treaty.
The SOR Treaty fully meets the national security interests of the Russian Federation and will serve as a weighty contribution to the cause of strengthening international security and strategic stability.
After the adoption by the State Duma of the Federal Law, as is expected, it will in the next few days be considered by the Federation Council of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation and in the case of approval will be submitted for the signature of the President of the Russian Federation. The Treaty will enter into force after the exchange of instruments of ratification between the Russian and American sides.
2. Putin, Powell Welcome Ratification of Moscow Treaty
Washington File: U.S. Department of State
5/14/2003
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President Putin: Dear colleagues, let me welcome you to Moscow. I'm sincerely glad to see you. Before we proceed to our discussion, I think we could congratulate each other on the fact that first you in the United States successfully ratified the treaty on strategic offensive reductions, and today, as you might know, the State Duma also reciprocated and ratified the treaty. And, that was done in a very convincing way, I think, 294 members of the parliament voted for it.
I believe your visit to be very timely. I think this meeting gives us a good opportunity to synchronize our watches before the upcoming summit meeting with President Bush at the end of May in St. Petersburg. Of course, we have had a lot of argument recently concerning the Iraq problem, but we have successfully overcome those differences and we succeeded in maintaining the basic foundation of our bilateral relationship and I hope that the upcoming meeting with President Bush will give a further impetus to the successful development, across the board development, of our bilateral relations in all areas.
You have just completed a very important, very responsible, mission to the Middle East and therefore we would be interested in discussing this topic with you. We have again been confronted with manifestations of terrorism, the recent terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia and two terrorist acts in Chechnya, the latest has taken place today. We have a lot of matters, a lot of questions to address and deal with together concerning Afghanistan, also concerning the problem of non-proliferation, and with pleasure we would like to exchange with you information with you on the problem of North Korea. And, also our Ministers for agriculture, for energy, for nuclear power development recently met and I think our bilateral relations in those areas are developing positively.
Secretary Powell: Thank you very much Mr. President for your warm welcome. It's a pleasure to be back here in Moscow to see you again. And, I'm pleased to bring you greetings from President Bush and he is looking very much forward to seeing you in St. Petersburg. I cannot tell you, sir, what a deep sense of satisfaction I feel to be here in Moscow on the day the Duma ratified the treaty. Igor was late coming for our meeting because he was at the Duma, but I forgive him.
This agreement, I think, Mr. President, demonstrates the strength of our bilateral relationship. The exchange of visits that you just made reference to with our agricultural ministers, our energy ministers, and so many of our other ministers going back and forth talking to one another, I think illustrates the strength and the depth of our bilateral relationship. We have had disagreements in the recent past especially with respect to Iraq, but now I think we have the opportunity to move forward, and all of us join together to help the Iraqi people to a better life. And I look forward to discussing all the issues you raised with respect to the Middle East and North Korea, on non-proliferation, as well as bilateral trade issues. So, thank you for your welcome, Mr. President.
The Russian Duma has ratified the Moscow treaty by a vote of 294-134. The U.S. Senate ratified the treaty on March 6 by a vote 95-0.
"The Moscow Treaty charts a course towards greater security for both the United States and Russia," said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Dick Lugar, who managed the Senate floor debate on the treaty. The treaty will take the number of nuclear warheads in the two countries down to the lowest level in half a century.
The Foreign Relations Committee approved the treaty on February 5 after holding four hearings and numerous briefings. The Committee required the White House to annually report to Congress progress in the implementation of the treaty, and how the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program is being used to destroy weapons in Russia.
Since 1991, the Cooperative Threat Reduction program developed by Lugar and former Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA) has destroyed more than 6,000 nuclear warheads and thousands of missiles and launchers in the former Soviet Union. Funding for Nunn-Lugar was held up most of last year by the Bush Administration, which contended that Russia was not living up to past treaties. Congress in late 2002 granted the President the authority to waive Nunn-Lugar funding conditions the administration used to hold up the program.
The Moscow Treaty, negotiated by Presidents Bush and Putin in May 2002, reduces operationally-deployed strategic nuclear warheads to a level of between 1,700 and 2,200 by December 31, 2012.
"I remember well visiting the START I and START II treaty negotiations," Lugar said. "The U.S. and the Soviet Union faced off against each other across conference tables for years. They produced multi-volume treaties and verification annexes that described in minute detail the requirements mandated by the treaties."
Lugar continued, "The Moscow Treaty recognizes that the U.S.-Russian relationship has turned the corner. Our countries are no longer mortal enemies engaged in a worldwide Cold War. Our agreements need not be based on mutual suspicion or an adversarial relationship. We are partners in the war against terrorism and we continue to build a strong military and security partnership. The Moscow Treaty reflects the changing nature of our relationship."
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